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The mirroless future
Well, I don't see it that way. To me, no manufacturer of mirrorless systems ever promised anything more than all DSLRs marketeers also promised. No world leadership, no automatic burst in creativity. The longer I take the pictures I like to take, the more I think, these marketeers have an easy game with us, as we always doubt what we see and need second, third, fourth, fiftieth opinions to confirm the decision of buying an item.

First, we were hunting for the lowest prices and killed all local dealer's businesses. So we took away our opportunities to compare before buying. In the meantime, superstars of lens comparison suites grew up and start to influence us and our dreams. Be it DPReview, Ken Rockwell, Roger Cigalla, Chris Nicholson, all of them tried their best to do a good job - and also to create more traffic as the payments of their jobs directly follow the number of views.

I think before we start to complain about unfulfilled promises, a little bit self-criticism would do as all good. There are pro and cons for every system, but if the DSLR is well adjusted to the lenses I use the keeper rate only depends of the speed of action in front of it. The mirrorless system only cuts away the process of calibration, no matter how fast a lens is. Back- or frontfocus in general is no issue. It's either tack sharp or blurred, but the "nearly sharp, if the lens focused just 1 cm more to the foreground" moments don't happen with mirrorless.

Please keep also in mind: DSLRs were not perfect right from the beginning, it took decades to build the current flagships. Mirrorless systems have a faster pace. I am very surprised about each firmware update of the Fuji's. They still do some basic things in a weird way, but AF-C now is at the same level as most DSLRs (in the same price regions) are. Who knows how the development would have happened, if DSLR manufacturers like Nikon would have introduced their AF auto calibration earlier?

At the moment I'm in Latvia. Yesterday night in Rīga I stumbled in a flame artist show given to a wedding couple. The keeper rate was low - unpredictable movements and lighting in between very dark and bright and I tried to switch between long and short shutter speeds - a lot things to do in the very short time the flames had enough fuel - I'm not sure if the X-T2 would have shown the same keeper rate or lower or even higher. Sharpness or resolution advantage was literally gone to smoke. For some quiet street scenes I was happy to have enough noise reserves, but the fire show which found me unprepared?

[Image: i-qj6C8VG-L.jpg]

[Image: i-nPpfJRG-L.jpg]

It was very dark, when I saw the boats coming. Neither I, no the X-T2 would have been able to focus on that dark boat. That's the advantage of having two systems in a camera - one very sensitive to AF, the other to take the picture. At ISO 25600 there's a lot of color noise - on APS-C, there would only be color noise...

[Image: i-84Z7Lqx-L.jpg]

Oh, and WEBMASTER: Is there a very good reason, that I see my linked photos only when I edit my post or when I log out of the forum?
Mirrorless cameras generally are already better than dslrs IMO, barring one single application, and that is whenever very fast focusing in combination with high fps is concerned, due to better PDAF in some cameras, although mirrorless is rapidly catching up in that area too, and generally with cameras that are cheaper than their dslr counterparts. Since I do not need that type of performance, personally I do not care for this anyway.

As to pricing: the last few years, with the downfall of cameras in general, in order to still get a return on R&D, prices have gone up and will continue to go up. We are getting back to the stage where only those truly interested in the art of photography (or videography) are going to buy anything beyond a cell phone with built-in camera, because they will still want to invest in the options available with "proper" cameras, like different lenses, control over one's camera, etc., etc. Do note that 40 years ago a 30 mm F/4 set you back a month of salary or thereabouts, whereas we now can probably buy about 10 of an even larger FoV for that matter. And compared to FF dslrs, mirrorless is a lot cheaper in similar categories (just forget equivalence for a moment, not relevant in this respect). I do expect for things to get back approximately to similar pricing we had 40 years ago relative to standard of living, simply because the market is going to get a lot smaller, and likely with fewer upgrades too. Some companies/brands will disappear from the market as well, and possibly new ones will still arise, from countries where they can be made more cheaply.

Currently, I am waiting for Canon to deliver a FF mirrorless camera still, provided it has everything I want (mostly, high MP at good IQ, for large prints). Other than that, I haven't really picked up my 5D II in a few years, as nice as it is, so I have put it up for sale, expecting a FF mirrorless to come out for my wants and needs within the next few years. In the mean time, my micro 4/3 setup plus my Canon lenses and speed boosters, will do just fine for me Smile.

Kind regards, Wim
Gear: Canon EOS R with 3 primes and 2 zooms, 4 EF-R adapters, Canon EOS 5 (analog), 9 Canon EF primes, a lone Canon EF zoom, 2 extenders, 2 converters, tubes; Olympus OM-D 1 Mk II & Pen F with 12 primes, 6 zooms, and 3 Metabones EF-MFT adapters ....
I would like to thank everyone helping me to understand what mirrorless is today what are the trends and what would you expect in near future.
I was not following the trends from past 10 years. 2-3 years ago I have started to look for upgrade of my system. 10..13 year old Canon APS-C.
I thinks that with all the information that I have today- I will not do any upgrades next 5-10years.
If something breaks I´ll buy it from e-bay. It is great source of almost unused, mainly APS-C equipment.

PS I never stop photographing. e.g. Last weeks I have a lot of fun with sigma150/ NonOS macro+ canon50d. IQ,controls,AF speed and accuracy are OK for me. UWAs are on my second body but I don´t use them often.

Many thanks,
There's a statement about Sony on DPReview. They want to become leading manufacturer by 2021. I don't oversee the origins of the parts camera manufacturers need, but Canon is still making their own sensors and has come up with three interesting types. Nikon is depending on Sony and with their highly conservative management I'm afraid their days are numbered.

Interesting strategy of Sony: Leave them the glory to come out first with a 36 MP sensor and make everyone believe that's a good package for high MP, then go with their mirrorless full frame line the same road, get better lenses and soon people get attracted. As DPReview already stated the ɑ7 III replace D750 in "best all-round camera" whatever that means. I don't want to debate that selection, but it's the first mirrorless camera replacing a commonly known DSLR in terms of value for money.

Like Wim I also think cameras became (too?) cheap - profits are melting down for the manufacturers. Sony can afford to loose money but win the race in the long term. I guess, we're approaching the moment when camera systems become obsolete again.
I don't think cameras are becoming too cheap, Nikon and Canon have a very healthy profit margin on the top models at least (5D mk IV, D850, D500, 7D mk II, 1D mk II, D5, DF) and on their lenses.
Nikon is using many sensors that are not dependent on Sony (in the APS-C range (D7100/7200/3100/3200/5200/, the D3/4/5, the D850) so apparently Nikon management has identified the issue with being reliant on Sony.
I have no idea what are the prices now.
I have
1. Canon 400D - 630euro
2. Canon 50d -850euro
3. Canon 50/1,8MK1 + CPL + UV filter - 120 euro second hand
4. tamron 17-50/2,8 - new 409euro
5. tamron 17-50/2,8 - second hand mint condition 150 euro
6. Tokina 100 Macro - 310euro
7. sigma150 macro - second hand UV filter mint cond 420euro
8. Tamron 70-300 VC - arround 450EU new
9. sigma 10-20 - 425 euro
10. sigma 8-16 second hand 320euro
11. several HOYA PRO CPL - 40..60euro
My question was can I upgrade to ff - answer is yes.
FF body + bunch of Sigma ART would be fine. - can I call this upgrade. FIrstable the weight - I foind my current setup heavy
Second the price - 12 years ago decent lens was between 400..800 euro
I agree with WIm prices wil reach the level of 40-50 yers ago. and photography will be the hobby for smal group of people most of the colectors.
The rest wil be the professional group.

As already said I will continue to enjoy of current setup , I dont need higher ISO range nor the 50MP resolution, nor the special feature to take 7 exposure bracketing, nor the higher MTF lenses
Last but not least I still learning my lenses
I think that JJ_SO has valid point. Self-critique is required.
-       We wanted low prices –> we don’t have local shops
-       We wanted huge prints -> camera manufacture listen to us and make 50MP
-       We wanted High ISO -> camera manufacture listen to us and make great FF camera.
-       We want high DR -> current sensors offer DR higher than human eye.
-       We compared the lens MTF -> sigma listen to us and made ART series – bunch of primes 1++kg each.
My question is what we want more J Or less is more. JThen less sells each year translates in more profitJ
I was thinking that Towerjazz is the sensor manufacturer of at least some of Nikon's sensors.

  I think DSLRs will stay at least for the next ten years, with ML slowly but surely taking a greater slice of the cake. One thing is, I don't think the DSLR market will be the most competitive price's the time for top of the range DSLR's like the D850/ D500 and their newer replacements, the entry levels will be the first to go, having average AF systems that are being better served by ML, with their almost full AF coverage.

 As for Sony ruling the roost.......I think it will happen....eventually ....mount adapters will give Canikon lens owners a second lease of life.

   I've noticed with the introduction of the now ubiquitous 150-600mm zooms, the amount of wildlife/nature shooters has risen enormously, Flikr for example had maybe 10-15% of wildlife's become very popular in the last two-three years and Flickr nature shots have risen to 40% or so.......the result has anchored many to the DSLR.
  All other spheres of photography, weddings studio and general family shooting are now as well or better catered for by ML, with nearly full AF coverage and eye detect AF.
  Fuji may well have limited it's professional potential by staying with APSc, where Sony went for FF, where are most of the protogs be they prosumer or pure pro........this aids Sony to rule the pro world in the future!
About a year ago I made my first experiences on Fuji GFX with the idea to exchange Nikon against "a bit more than FF" plus the benefit that some accessories as well as lenses could be exchanged (of course, lenses only in direction big lens to small body).

But then. These aperture rings. Loads of buttons, dials (with locking buttons instead of decent spring steps) plus top display plus touch LCD = a lot of everything except a well thought concept of usage. The menu system. The haptics of the whole body and worse, the lens felt rather cheap.

It's probably an exaggeration but if I want to put a nail into a wall and don't find a hammer, I still can use a Nikon with some chance for success and still working camera afterwards. It's crazy, but I would miss Nikon just for the decent feeling in my hand while the Fuji remains more on the toy side for me - no offense, Fuji-owners, -addicts, -fanboys.

And Sony? A year ago the situation was different. But if I go today to one of the remaining photodealers and glance at his second hand shelves... at least 4-6 D810 bodies inside for around 1500,- Goodness, that's half price... I'm not sure if all of them were exchanged against D850. I'm sure none of them was exchanged for any Canon. But some Sony bodies were financed by these trusty D810.

And Fuji? Well, there's a big mass of die-hard Fuji fans. They want everything and don't mind to dig very deep and very long into cluster menus for that, customization everywhere and Kaizen just kicks ass. It needs to do - in first version, they sometimes have hard to accept downsides. It needed at least 3 firmware updates to get acceptable, then alright, the competitive AF-C - but the flimsy dwarf-knob on the frontside remained flimsy, it's not possible to override the lens in AF-C - and while I could AF-C a little spider with D850 and Sigma 180/2.8 macro APO while it was shaken by the wind (the spider, not the lens), it was close to impossible to get a decent shot with this fancy new and brutally expensive 80 mm Macro from Fuji. AF sucked big time, could not track, lens was reacting delayed, manual focus was a joke and the focus limiter? May I quote? "focus range for autofocus: FULL (0.25 m–∞) or, for faster focus, 0.5 m–∞ or 0.25–0.5 m" I've no idea who's in charge at Fuji for these "ingenious" ranges. They just are always wrong.
I have read this article.
I find the polling votes result interesting. The results are as expected.
What bother me are the the answers list.
Is seems to target small group of people who will buy big camera in near future.
What about the rest of the world
- the new generation. They dont care. Just for fun I wil ask my kids do they see any difference between one FF mirrorless or SLR
- Technical savvy people who like taking pictures already has high end smartphone and ditch those big cameras.
- Amateur photographers like me already have dSLR with oldie but goodie glass. Most of them already bought the latest and the greatest smartphone. Are they going to buy mirrorless? No- The gap between oldie dSLR and modern smartphone is so tiny.
- pro - they talk about money and after service. If they can earn money with current equipment they will not switch. Big concern is after service. Pro will be forced to upgrade, if Can/Nik ditch their SLR support


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