09-20-2010, 05:17 PM
[quote name='joachim' timestamp='1284991781' post='2986']
I think PD-AF is the key here. Once they have a way to implement that into a mirrorless or come up with an alternative way to AF fast in a mirror less, I think the SLR is toast (apart from special applications which means $££€€). Considering how quickly the transition went with film, I would give it 2 years from now.
[/quote]
Yep, this decade marks the end of the SLR concept. Once you realize that a micro-system can give you images as good as DSLRs it's obvious that it's the beginning of the end. We're already seeing a dramatic shift and it's accelerating on a monthly basis. Lenses are all that's missing right now and once Canon and Nikon will introduce their micro-systems (I reckon at the PMA) the APS-C DSLR market is doomed.
Full format DSLRs are here to stay for a while in the professional segment but even today this market has a volume share of just 10% (although some like to feel that it's closer to 90%).
I wouldn't give it two years but 5-8 though. The move from film to digital was simpler because you could keep the lenses. It simply takes a while to recognize the advantages of a micro system. Asia shows the way this time because they've always been early adopter.
I think PD-AF is the key here. Once they have a way to implement that into a mirrorless or come up with an alternative way to AF fast in a mirror less, I think the SLR is toast (apart from special applications which means $££€€). Considering how quickly the transition went with film, I would give it 2 years from now.
[/quote]
Yep, this decade marks the end of the SLR concept. Once you realize that a micro-system can give you images as good as DSLRs it's obvious that it's the beginning of the end. We're already seeing a dramatic shift and it's accelerating on a monthly basis. Lenses are all that's missing right now and once Canon and Nikon will introduce their micro-systems (I reckon at the PMA) the APS-C DSLR market is doomed.
Full format DSLRs are here to stay for a while in the professional segment but even today this market has a volume share of just 10% (although some like to feel that it's closer to 90%).
I wouldn't give it two years but 5-8 though. The move from film to digital was simpler because you could keep the lenses. It simply takes a while to recognize the advantages of a micro system. Asia shows the way this time because they've always been early adopter.